BiH seems like a certain kind of enclave, i.e. it is one of the few Balkan countries that is still not a member of NATO, and it is increasingly in the focus of great world powers, especially Russia, as noted by political and security analysts.
They noted that there will be no war in BiH or the Balkans, for several reasons. However, actions of Russia so far and in the future period could largely affect the overall situation in BiH.
The occasion for the analysis were claims of the General of the US Army for Europe, Curtis Scaparrrotti, who talked about the challenges regarding the “bad influence” and “manipulation” of Russia in Europe, and “especially in Serbia and Balkans”.
“They influence almost all aspects of Europe in this or that way. The region I’m worried about today is the Balkans. We managed to maintain this field stable through the work of the International Community and the United States. We have been working on democratic government and its strengthening. However, Russia is also working in the Balkans, and I believe that we have taken the attention from that region,” stated Scaparrotti.
Security analyst Nedzad Ahatovic commented these statements and noted that the influence of Russia in BiH is manifested through decisions such as the one on banning the export of ammunition to Ukraine from the year of 2015.
Political analyst Vehid Sehic believes that the statement of General Scaparrrotti refers to the relationship between the US and Russia.
“BiH is located on a specific territory in Europe, which has always attracted the great powers. These forces are trying to make their influence on the Balkans. Some of them are trying to achieve it through other components such as NATO. We can see that Montenegro also became a member of NATO, and therefore, the space for the manoeuver of Russia was further decreased. Macedonia is also on its way to join the NATO. Only Serbia, BiH and Kosovo are left. Great forces are trying to have a dominant influence in these countries. However, the US has the greatest influence in BiH for sure,” said Sehic.
In his opinion, BiH will enter NATO, while Serbia will continue with the policy of neutrality.
“Serbia is trying to have a special political relationship both with Russia and the United States as great forces. We have to bear in mind that the Balkans countries are not asked for almost anything. We are small countries. That is the reason why the great powers have their own interests here and want to make their influence,” noted Sehic.