The main political issue in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is the Election Law and untangling that Gordian knot is the biggest challenge domestic politicians, but also for the international community. It was unofficially found out that the option of the High Representative (HR) to impose changes to the Election Law is being seriously considered in diplomatic circles.
Judging by the existing political constellation, due to the complete blockade of state institutions, instructed primarily by the SNSD, because it resents Inzko’s law banning genocide denial and denies Christian Schmidt as HR, it is difficult to expect an agreement on the Election Law soon.
Many deadlines for amendments to the law have long since been broken, and the trench political position in relation to the demands of the HDZ, the positions of the SDA and other parties, as well as the inferiority of the SNSD suggest that this issue could turn hands. Whether and to what extent this will be done will be known by the end of this year.
Testing the situation on the field and potential reactions
Unofficially, the diplomatic sources might consider the option of imposing the provisions of the Election Law, so the field is currently being examined for potential reactions that would follow. They are thinking in the direction of imposing an Election Law that would not fully support the demands of the HDZ, but would mostly suit them. Estimates are that pro-Bosnian parties and the general public are expected to show resentment, and it is being assessed to what extent this dissatisfaction would go. Foreigners are currently asking where the biggest source of resentment and potential rebellion could come from.
There is even a map of parallels and conclusions that “Bosniaks got Inzko’s law”, so it could be done to change the Election Law, which will not be entirely in favor of that people. Namely, the international community would be satisfied if the disapproval of such a move was in the rank of the disapproval of the Serbian parties on Inzko’s law.
As much as this scenario is difficult to imagine or even feasible, it is evident that this option is being considered in international circles. Foreigners are also tired of eternal tensions and blockades, so many are thinking about the imperative of resolving the issue of the Election Law, even through imposition. The calculation is that in that way the HDZ, and to a large extent the SNSD, would calm down and that the rebellion of the SDA and other parties would be tolerated.
The option should not be ruled out that the imposition of this law would be an alibi for those who would be willing to give inand compromise and would support such a thing.
Only a few days ago, HR specifically commented on details that are controversial regarding the Election Law. He emphasized the issue of electing a member of the Presidency, stating that Komsic is elected by the majority of Bosniaks, but that Croats must also be allowed to feel represented so that everything does not end with some form of boycott of the election.
Schmidt’s Pandora’s box
It is interesting that Schmidt did not point out the problem why the judgments of the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg were not implemented, which is why representatives of national minorities were discriminated against, but alsoBosniaks from Republika Srpska (RS) or Serbs from the Federation of BiH (FBiH). He also did not comment on possiblythe key issue, which is the election of delegates to the FBiH House of Peoples.
If Schmidt opens Pandora’s box by imposing changes to the Election Law, it is completely uncertain what it would all turn out to be. It is almost impossible to make changes to the Election Law without partial changes to both the BiH Constitution and the FBiH Constitution.
Inevitably, the Election Law will be a baptism of fire for Schmidt in any scenario, and his moves could expose all policies and plans for this country by the end of the year. The influence of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Germany should not be ruled out either, where the left-wing SPD is growing enormously and is now the main favorite for the position of chancellor. On the other hand, Schmidt’s party CSU has so far been a regular coalition partner of the CDU, and the eventual success of the SPD and the arrival of Chancellor Olaf Scholz could determine support for Schmidt’s possible moves in BiH, Klix.ba writes.