Recognition of the former Yugoslav republics by Germany and some other European countries might lead to a war in B&H and encourage the division of the land between the Croatia and Serbia, as stated on document of CIA from the 19th of December 1991, regarding estimations of future events in Yugoslavia and B&H.
Bill Clinton, the former US president, announced organizing of a round table on the occasion of the publication of these documents at the beginning of October. In documents from the end of 1991 we can see the hesitant US position on whether to recognize the independence of Slovenia and Croatia, because, on the one hand, US believed that recognition might cause a war, and on the other hand, that the non-recognition might convince European countries to stay not involved in the growing crisis.
The mentioned document from the 19th of December, stated that the most likely scenario for B&H was “widespread violence and civil conflict.” “The decision of Germany and other countries of the European Community on the recognition of the independence of the Yugoslav republics is most likely going to provoke Serbs and Croats (from B&H) to join the Croatian and Serbian areas to Serbia and Croatia,” as stated in the assessment.
As the most positive scenario, or the scenario with a minimum of violence, the CIA considered the way that authorities in B&H should take the moderate forces who would, through negotiations, divide parts of B&H and join them to Serbia and Croatia, and that Muslims should either join Croatia or establish an Islamic state from whatever remains from it, reported Nezavisne novine.
“The perspective for B&H looks quite bad, even if Serbia and Croatia get an agreement. Intelligence data shows that Slobodan Milosevic and Franjo Tudjman are ready to join the parts of B&H to their territories. Furthermore, reports indicate that the two of them are in contact all the time despite conflicts. This summer, Tudjman said to German politicians that B&H is too big and that he is more than willing to share it,” stated the CIA.
They estimated that Slobodan Milosevic will not defend Banja Luka in case it falls into the hands of the Croatian-Muslim forces, as written in a document from the 21st of September 1995. As stated there, they were surprised by the lack of reaction of Belgrade to the action of Croatian military “Oluja”, reported Kurir.